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. 2019 Feb 5;29(2):65–72. doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20170230

Table 2. Multinomial logistic regression analysis of the “persistently disabled” or “rapidly declining” trajectory compared to the “slowly declining” trajectory by sex.

  Men (n = 1,049) Women (n = 1,633)
Persistently disabled (vs Slowly declining)
Model 1a Model 2b Model 1a Model 2b
OR 95% CI P-value OR 95% CI P-value OR 95% CI P-value OR 95% CI P-value
Frequency of outings
 Higher 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 Low 2.68 1.14 6.28 0.023* 2.14 1.03 4.41 0.040* 1.64 1.02 2.64 0.043* 1.20 0.68 2.12 0.524
 Missing 0.69 0.10 4.79 0.709 0.74 0.14 3.86 0.725 1.78 1.12 2.83 0.015 1.67 0.61 4.55 0.319
Age
 65–74 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 75–84 1.57 0.69 3.57 0.278 1.50 0.61 3.67 0.379 0.85 0.41 1.75 0.652 0.79 0.35 1.77 0.572
 85– 1.09 0.27 4.47 0.900 1.13 0.25 5.08 0.876 0.96 0.61 1.52 0.861 0.78 0.45 1.34 0.361
Education (years)
 ≤9 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 ≥10 0.35 0.14 0.89 0.027* 0.37 0.14 0.96 0.041* 0.63 0.38 1.05 0.078 0.67 0.39 1.15 0.150
 Missing/others 1.92 0.67 5.50 0.225 1.89 0.68 5.21 0.221 1.00 0.43 2.33 0.991 0.82 0.38 1.74 0.599
Household composition
 With spouse/children/others 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 Live alone 0.67 0.14 3.27 0.620 0.60 0.13 2.84 0.519 1.16 0.57 2.37 0.687 1.25 0.62 2.53 0.529
 Missing 0.37 0.05 2.76 0.335 0.41 0.06 2.87 0.372 2.03 0.48 8.57 0.334 2.07 0.43 9.97 0.363
Urbanization
 Urban (>1,500 population/km2) 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 Semi-urban (1,000–1,500 population/km2) 0.55 0.36 0.84 0.006* 0.60 0.39 0.91 0.017* 1.71 1.05 2.81 0.032* 1.70 1.11 2.61 0.016*
 Rural (<1,000 population/km2) 0.93 0.56 1.54 0.786 0.99 0.56 1.75 0.968 1.98 1.81 2.16 <0.001 2.02 1.77 2.32 <0.001
Body mass index
 <18.5         2.33 1.24 4.40 0.009*         1.06 0.40 2.84 0.900
 18.5–24.9         1.00               1.00      
 ≥25         1.26 0.41 3.87 0.685         1.08 0.56 2.10 0.822
 Missing         1.10 0.34 3.60 0.874         1.66 0.76 3.63 0.203
Current medical history
 No         1.00               1.00      
 Yes         1.93 0.90 4.14 0.092         0.75 0.48 1.16 0.198
Instrumental activities of daily living
 5 points (full marks)         1.00               1.00      
 4 points and under         1.15 0.75 1.76 0.523         2.27 1.42 3.64 0.001*
 Missing         0.95 0.20 4.64 0.952         1.04 0.34 3.17 0.944
  Rapidly declining (vs Slowly declining)
Model 1a Model 2b Model 1a Model 2b
OR 95% CI P-value OR 95% CI P-value OR 95% CI P-value OR 95% CI P-value
Frequency of outings
 Higher 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 Low 1.16 0.88 1.53 0.291 1.11 0.82 1.50 0.498 1.29 0.96 1.73 0.086 1.12 0.87 1.44 0.388
 Missing 0.88 0.48 1.61 0.675 0.91 0.53 1.55 0.723 1.21 0.68 2.18 0.519 1.10 0.50 2.42 0.805
Age
 65–74 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 75–84 0.64 0.51 0.80 <0.001* 0.61 0.48 0.77 <0.001* 0.66 0.50 0.87 0.004* 0.63 0.50 0.79 <0.001*
 85– 0.93 0.55 1.60 0.799 0.87 0.50 1.51 0.613 0.57 0.33 0.98 0.042* 0.50 0.33 0.76 0.001*
Education (years)
 ≤9 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 ≥10 0.84 0.68 1.03 0.087 0.87 0.68 1.10 0.251 0.75 0.58 0.97 0.026* 0.74 0.58 0.95 0.017*
 Missing/others 1.38 0.70 2.73 0.350 1.31 0.66 2.58 0.437 1.02 0.66 1.57 0.923 0.98 0.55 1.73 0.938
Household composition
 With spouse/children/others 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 Live alone 0.59 0.35 1.00 0.051 0.58 0.32 1.06 0.075 0.71 0.53 0.94 0.018* 0.74 0.55 0.99 0.042*
 Missing 1.22 0.85 1.73 0.279 1.24 0.83 1.85 0.296 0.86 0.51 1.46 0.585 0.82 0.44 1.53 0.531
Urbanization
 Urban (>1,500 population/km2) 1.00       1.00       1.00       1.00      
 Semi-urban (1,000–1,500 population/km2) 0.93 0.66 1.30 0.679 0.95 0.69 1.32 0.768 0.85 0.69 1.04 0.111 0.82 0.66 1.02 0.069
 Rural (<1,000 population/km2) 1.13 0.79 1.60 0.504 1.17 0.84 1.63 0.343 1.10 0.90 1.35 0.361 1.10 0.90 1.35 0.348
Body mass index
 <18.5         1.41 0.89 2.24 0.144         1.23 0.80 1.89 0.355
 18.5–24.9         1.00               1.00      
 ≥25         0.96 0.70 1.33 0.818         0.75 0.59 0.94 0.013*
 Missing         1.23 0.80 1.89 0.345         1.01 0.68 1.51 0.952
Current medical history
 No         1.00               1.00      
 Yes         1.55 1.20 2.01 0.001*         0.89 0.64 1.24 0.496
Instrumental activities of daily living
 5 points (full marks)         1.00               1.00      
 4 points and under         1.09 0.70 1.71 0.694         1.44 0.95 2.19 0.086
 Missing         1.14 0.50 2.62 0.752         1.02 0.58 1.81 0.935

CI, confidence interval; GDS-15, short version of the Geriatric Depression Scale; OR, odds ratio.

Only covariates that are significantly related to at least one of the trajectories are listed.

aAdjusted for age, marital status, education years, equivalent annual household income, household composition, and urbanization.

bAdjusted for the covariates in Model 1 + body mass index, current medical history, self-rated health, depression (GDS-15 ≥6), intellectual activities, and instrumental activities of daily living.

*P < 0.05.