Scatter plots of the predicted time of recurrence and the observed time of recurrence, in months after definitive local therapy, for each indicator variable using Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance/Medicare data for patients with lung cancer. Secondary malignancy (1): secondary malignant neoplasm codes without lymph node sites of disease. Secondary malignancy (2): secondary malignant neoplasm codes including lymph node sites of disease. Red dots indicate subjects for whom the indicator variable produced a predicted time of recurrence. Blue dots indicate the subjects for whom the indicator variable produced no predicted time of recurrence, so the predicted time of recurrence displayed in the figure was estimated by the naïve prediction rule (ie, Ri/2; the half time of the given time window). Abs Err, absolute error; ER, emergency room; incl, including.