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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2019 Jan 19.
Published in final edited form as: Sex Transm Dis. 2018 Dec;45(12):791–797. doi: 10.1097/OLQ.0000000000000882

Table 1: List of selected simulation parameters.

STI, sexually transmitted infection; PrEP, pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV.

Model Parameters Value/[Range]1 Reference
HIV disease state duration
 Acute infection [6, 9] weeks 1S–3S
 Chronic infection [8, 10] years 1S,4S
 Late infection2 [1, 3] years 1S,2S,4S
Time from ART initiation to full viral suppression [3, 6] months 5S
Time from ART discontinuation to pre-ART CD4 nadir3 [3, 9] months 6S–9S
HIV mortality rate, acute and chronic HIV, no ART 5 per 1000 person years 10S–12S
Reduction in HIV mortality due to ART 0.58 * Mortality rate in chronic state
Probability of ART discontinuation (20%,50%,90%) by the end of (1st,2nd, 8th) year, 50% per year afterward4 13S
Average viral load (log10 copies/mL)
 Acute, no ART 6.5
 Chronic, no ART 4.5
 Late, no ART 5
 On ART, partially suppressed 3.5
 On ART, fully suppressed 1.5
Infectiousness per sexual contact 2.45(log(VL)-4.5) 1S
Annual number STI clinic visits among MSM 966 1S
PrEP reassessment period 3 months 14S
PrEP uptake 60% [0–100%]
PrEP adherence5 60% [0–100%]
1

Values generated via uniform distributions over the specified range unless stated otherwise

2

Duration reflects the mortality rate due to late HIV disease

3

Infectiousness assumed equal to that of the chronic state

4

Values adjusted via a simulation coefficient (p=0.7) for calibration to Baltimore data

5

PrEP is 100% effective if adhered to