Table 1: List of selected simulation parameters.
Model Parameters | Value/[Range]1 | Reference |
---|---|---|
HIV disease state duration | ||
Acute infection | [6, 9] weeks | 1S–3S |
Chronic infection | [8, 10] years | 1S,4S |
Late infection2 | [1, 3] years | 1S,2S,4S |
Time from ART initiation to full viral suppression | [3, 6] months | 5S |
Time from ART discontinuation to pre-ART CD4 nadir3 | [3, 9] months | 6S–9S |
HIV mortality rate, acute and chronic HIV, no ART | 5 per 1000 person years | 10S–12S |
Reduction in HIV mortality due to ART | 0.58 * Mortality rate in chronic state | |
Probability of ART discontinuation | (20%,50%,90%) by the end of (1st,2nd, 8th) year, 50% per year afterward4 | 13S |
Average viral load (log10 copies/mL) | ||
Acute, no ART | 6.5 | |
Chronic, no ART | 4.5 | |
Late, no ART | 5 | |
On ART, partially suppressed | 3.5 | |
On ART, fully suppressed | 1.5 | |
Infectiousness per sexual contact | 2.45(log(VL)-4.5) | 1S |
Annual number STI clinic visits among MSM | 966 | 1S |
PrEP reassessment period | 3 months | 14S |
PrEP uptake | 60% [0–100%] | |
PrEP adherence5 | 60% [0–100%] |
Values generated via uniform distributions over the specified range unless stated otherwise
Duration reflects the mortality rate due to late HIV disease
Infectiousness assumed equal to that of the chronic state
Values adjusted via a simulation coefficient (p=0.7) for calibration to Baltimore data
PrEP is 100% effective if adhered to