Table 3.
Comparison of the actual and predicted incidence of intussusception with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (1,0,1 1,1,1)12 model in 2017
| Month | Actual incidence (1/100000 population) |
Predicted incidence (1/100000 population) |
95% CI of forecast (LCL) | 95% CI of forecast (UCL) |
| January | 7.87 | 6.94 | 4.51 | 9.36 |
| February | 6.40 | 8.27 | 5.28 | 11.26 |
| March | 5.09 | 8.90 | 5.29 | 12.21 |
| April | 6.79 | 8.96 | 5.46 | 12.46 |
| May | 7.44 | 9.47 | 5.85 | 13.10 |
| June | 7.76 | 8.35 | 4.64 | 12.05 |
| July | 8.09 | 8.36 | 4.61 | 12.12 |
| August | 7.37 | 8.79 | 5.00 | 12.57 |
| September | 7.23 | 7.73 | 3.92 | 11.54 |
| October | 6.05 | 6.83 | 3.01 | 10.65 |
| November | 5.31 | 7.27 | 3.44 | 11.10 |
| December | 5.56 | 6.76 | 2.93 | 10.59 |
LCL, low control limit; UCL upper control limit.