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. 2019 Jan 15;9(1):e023938. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-023938

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Confidence about no circulation as a function of time since the last detection for different detection probability values for the hypothetical model base case, with coverage at the corresponding minimum to eliminate WPV (ie, 0.82).