Fig. 4.

The probability (%) of yield loss (i.e. yield dropping below historical average) when experiencing a moderate (blue bar), extreme (yellow bar), severe (magenta bar) and exceptional drought (red bar) for (a) wheat, (b) maize, (c) rice and (d) soybeans. The top 10 producing countries for each crop are selected for illustration. The colored background map indicates the gridded crop area percentage (Portmann et al., 2010), based on which weights are assigned to gridded climate for spatial aggregations.