Fig. 5.

Projected changes in risk (%) of yield reduction in the future versus history as simulated by process-based crop models. Each dot represents the ensemble mean of risks simulated by 11 crop models under a given climate scenario, while the grey error lines indicate the corresponding uncertainties arising from crop models. The colors of dots represent the risk under various levels of drought severity. Here, five climate scenarios and four drought severity categories are considered, and there are 5 × 4 = 20 dots in each subplot.