Table 1. Parameters used to describe TB natural history and epidemiology in a Brazilian state.
Variable | Definition | Prisoner | Ex-prisoner | Community | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
β | effective contact rate | 17.0 (10–30) | 8.08 (4–12) | 8.08 (4–12) | Calculated |
μ | birth/death rate | 0.017 | 0.017 | 0.017 | [25] |
τ | rate of progression from early latent to infectious | 0.09 (0.005–0.1) | 0.03 (0.005–0.1) | 0.01 (0.005–0.1) | Calibration |
v | rate of progression from late latent to infectious | .0008 | .0008 | .0008 | [26] |
w | rate of progression from early latent to late latent | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | [27] |
α1 | susceptibility to reinfection upon reexposure | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | [28] |
α2 | rate of reinfection from recovered to early latent | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | [28] |
γ | rate of relapse from recovered to infectious | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | [29] |
d | rate of diagnosis and treatment initiation | 0.55 (0.5–1.0) | 0.85 | 0.85 | Calibration |
q | rate of incarceration | N/A | 0.0182 | 0.00196 | Calculated |
r | rate of release from imprisonment | 0.5 | N/A | N/A | Estimated from SIGO |
Parenthetical values are the ranges used in sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. All rates are annual.
Abbreviations: SIGO, Sistema Integrado de Gestão Operacional; TB, tuberculosis.