Table 3.

Average forecast skill for US national targets by forecast team during the 2015–2016 influenza season. Bold denotes the highest scoring team for that target.

	Onset week	Peak week	Peak intensity	Seasonal averagea	1 week ahead	2 week ahead	3 week ahead	4 week ahead	Short-term averageb
Model A	0.004	0.003	0.523	0.021	0.107	0.122	0.114	0.115	0.114
Model B	0.179	0.204	0.515	0.274	0.612	0.513	0.451	0.398	0.492
Model C	0.038	0.015	0.255	0.054	0.578	0.293	0.164	0.098	0.238
Model D	0.037	0.031	0.279	0.072	0.876	0.668	0.443	0.297	0.540
Model E	0.045	0.072	0.655	0.139	0.707	0.658	0.601	0.535	0.626
Model F	0.038	0.072	0.647	0.131	0.893	0.727	0.663	0.514	0.695
Model G	0.047	0.110	0.581	0.157	0.847	0.715	0.638	0.577	0.693
Model H	0.014	0.000	0.055	0.007	0.014	0.067	0.011	0.008	0.017
Model Ic	0.004	0.008	0.013	0.008	0.162	0.209	0.257	0.317	0.225
Model J	0.000	0.155	0.383	0.036	0.711	0.399	0.303	0.207	0.376
Model Kc	0.037	0.030	0.076	0.044	0.358	0.343	0.320	0.283	0.326
Model Lc	0.105	0.167	0.323	0.185	0.747	0.759	0.566	0.352	0.590
Model M	0.004	0.021	0.278	0.033	0.698	0.426	0.284	0.169	0.357
Model Nc	0.001	0.002	0.003	0.002	0.061	0.043	0.014	0.009	0.025
Median Team Skill	0.037	0.030	0.301	0.049	0.655	0.413	0.311	0.290	0.366
FluSight Ensemble	0.115	0.134	0.505	0.206	0.719	0.620	0.542	0.466	0.585
Hist. Avg. Forecast	0.108	0.054	0.268	0.117	0.406	0.408	0.404	0.400	0.404

^aAverage of submissions for onset week, peak week, and peak intensity.

^bAverage of submissions for 1, 2, 3, and 4 weeks ahead.

^cFirst forecast received on MMWR week 45 (Model K), 49 (Model L), 50 (Model I), and week 4 (Model N); Missing forecasts are assigned a log score of −10 for scoring purposes.