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. 2019 Jan 24;4(1):e001083. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2018-001083

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

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Projected point prevalence and cases of active tuberculosis (TB) across Cambodia, 2010–2030. Darker regions indicate higher prevalence of active TB. Three scenarios were modelled—(1) no future improvement: future TB prevalence is projected based on the estimates of age specific point prevalence in 2011 assuming no further improvement to the TB control programme; (2) continual reduction: the reduction in age-specific point prevalence between the 2002 and 2011 NTP surveys was extrapolated to 2030; and (3) gross domestic product ( GDP) projections: the reduction in age-specific point prevalence of TB brought about by rapid development projected for Cambodia until 2030. No future improvement and continual reduction may constitute lower and upper plausible bounds for future prevalence of active TB.