Table 4.
END model in prediction of early neurological deterioration.
| END Model | Total Number | All END Number (%) | Predicted END Number | Successfully Predicted END Number | Parameters | p |
Odds Ratio
(95% Confidence Interval) |
Sensitivity/
Specificity/PPV/NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 163 | 43 (26.1%) | 9 | 8 | DWI > 80ml | 0.003 0.022* |
25.6(3.1 – 211.8) 15.8(1.5 – 166.0)* |
18.6%/ 99.2%/ 88.9%/ 77.3% |
| B | 65 | 12 (18.5%) | 30 | 11 | Perfusion defect in CBF maps + infarct location | 0.006 0.007† |
19.7(2.4 – 164) 23.6(2.4 – 233.5)† |
91.7%/ 64.2%/ 36.7%/ 97.1% |
| C | 89 | 23 (25.8%) | 22 | 14 | (Tmax>6s/DWI) > 120% + (Tmax>6s) > 10ml | <0.001 <0.001‡ |
11.3(3.7 – 34.5) 12.8(3.8 – 42.7) ‡ |
60.9%/ 87.9%/ 63.6%/ 86.6% |
| D | 67 | 9 (14.3%) | 28 | 7 | Multiple acute infarcts | 0.032 0.032‡ |
6.2(1.2 – 32.4) 7.2 (1.2 – 43.1)‡ |
77.8%/ 63.8%/ 25.0%/ 94.9% |
| A+B+C | 163 | 43 (26.1%) | 61 | 33 | Models A+B+C | <0.001 <0.001* |
10.8(4.8 – 24.7) 9.3(4.0 – 21.6) * |
76.7%/ 76.7%/ 54.1%/ 90.2% |
| A+B+C+D | 163 | 43 (26.1%) | 89 | 40 | Models A+B+C+D | <0.001 <0.001* |
20.0(5.9 – 68.3) 17.5(5.1 – 60.8)* |
93.0%/ 60.0%/ 45.5%/ 96.0% |
Abbreviations:
DWI: Diffusion Weighted Imaging; END: Early Neurological Deterioration; NPV: Negative Predictive Value; PPV: Positive Predictive Value; Tmax: Time to Maximum of Residual Tissue.
A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to adjust for baseline variables when a p-value <0.1 was found in the univariate analysis:
* Adjusted for old stroke and baseline NIHSS.
† Adjusted for old stroke and sex.
‡ Adjusted for smoking and sex.