Table 5.

Selected 1 month % BMI reduction cut-offs for early weight loss as predictors of ≥5% BMI reduction at 6 month visit and at 12 -month visits. Data are presented with the 95% CI provided in parentheses.

A. Prediction of BMI reduction at 6 months
Cut-off values for losing X% BMI at 1 month	Prevalence (%)of 5% reduction	Sensitivity (%) for 5% reduction	Specificity (%) for 5% reduction	Positive predictive value (%) for X% reduction at 1 month	Negative predictive value (%) for X% reduction at 1 month	Overall accuracy of the test %
≥2%		65.1 (56.1,73.4)	80.1 (76.6,83.4)	42.7 (35.6,50.0)	91.0 (88.1,93.4)	77.4 (74.0,80.4)
≥3%	18.5	48.4 (39.4,57.5)	91.5 (88.9,93.7)	56.5 (46.6,66.0)	88.6 (85.7,91.1)	83.5 (80.5,86.2)
≥4%	(15.7,21.7)	31.7 (23.7,40.6)	96.6 (94.7,97.9)	67.8 (54.4,79.4)	86.2 (83.2,88.8)	84.6 (81.6,87.2)
≥5%		23.0 (16.0,31.4)	98.2 (96.7,99.1)	74.4 (57.9,87.0)	84.9 (81.9,87.6)	84.3 (81.3,86.9)
B. Prediction of BMI reduction at 12 months
Cut-off values for losing X% BMI at 1 month	Prevalence (%) of 5% reduction	Sensitivity (%) for 5% reduction	Specificity (%) for 5% reduction	Positive predictive value (%) for X% reduction at 1 month	Negative predictive value (%) for X% reduction at 1 month	Overall accuracy of the test %
≥2%		50.0 (36.8,63.2)	78.8 (72.8,83.9)	38.5 (27.7,50.2)	85.6 (80.1,90.1)	72.7 (67.2,77.8)
≥3%	21.0	38.3 (26.1,51.8)	89.4 (84.6,93.1)	48.9 (34.1,63.9)	84.5 (79.3,88.9)	78.7 (73.5,83.3)
≥4%	(16.4,26.2)	31.7 (20.3,45.0)	95.6 (92.0,97.9)	65.5 (45.7,82.1)	84.0 (79.0,88.3)	82.2 (77.2,86.4)
≥5%		25.0 (14.7,37.9)	96.9 (93.7,98.7)	68.2 (45.1,86.1)	83.0 (77.9,87.3)	81.8 (76.9,86.1)