Table 8.

Assumption on gender–age-specific prevalence of unhealthy condition from 2010 to 2050 in urban China (%).

Source: Based on the National 1% Population Survey of China in 2005

Age group	Low scenario		Medium scenario		High scenario
	Males	Females	Males	Females	Males	Females
0–4	0.30	0.27	0.30	0.27	0.30	0.27
5–9	0.26	0.19	0.26	0.19	0.26	0.19
10–14	0.31	0.23	0.31	0.23	0.31	0.23
15–19	0.39	0.29	0.39	0.29	0.39	0.29
20–24	0.45	0.32	0.45	0.32	0.45	0.32
25–29	0.45	0.33	0.45	0.33	0.45	0.33
30–34	0.55	0.40	0.55	0.40	0.55	0.40
35–39	0.64	0.49	0.64	0.49	0.64	0.49
40–44	0.89	0.65	0.89	0.65	0.89	0.65
45–49	1.18	0.89	1.18	0.89	1.18	0.89
50–54	1.40	1.09	1.56	1.21	1.72	1.33
55–59	1.83	1.85	2.03	2.06	2.23	2.27
60–64	3.06	3.89	3.40	4.32	3.74	4.75
65–69	5.48	6.94	6.09	7.71	6.70	8.48
70–74	10.31	11.69	11.46	12.99	12.61	14.29
75–79	14.59	18.77	16.21	20.85	17.83	22.94
80–84	21.96	27.60	24.40	30.67	26.84	33.74
85–89	29.17	35.76	32.41	39.73	35.65	43.70
90–94	42.80	41.48	47.55	46.09	52.31	50.70
95–99	47.87	52.45	53.19	58.28	58.51	64.11
100+	51.43	48.47	57.14	53.85	62.85	59.24

An individual is categorized as “disabled”“ if he or she self-reported to be “unable to carry out regular work and daily activities,” or to be “not sure about their health status.” Those who reported “not sure” were less than 2% and the majority of them are older than age 70. The “healthy” category includes those who self-reported as “healthy” or as “basically can carry out regular work and daily activities.” For the low scenario, we assume the proportion of unhealthy Chinese elderly (50 +) will decrease by 10% from 2005 to 2050. For the medium scenario, we assume the proportion of unhealthy Chinese elderly (50 +) will not change from 2005 to 2050. For the high scenario, we assume the proportion of unhealthy Chinese elderly (50 +) will gradually increase by 10% from 2005 to 2050