Table 2. Summary findings for the sensitivity analysis of the pass-through effect for the extended cost–effectiveness analysis of the sweetened beverages tax in the Philippines.
| Variable | Total | Quintile 1 | Quintile 2 | Quintile 3 | Quintile 4 | Quintile 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass-through effect reduced to 50% | ||||||
| No. of diabetes mellitus incident cases averted | 164 162 | 15 729 | 30 294 | 36 305 | 42 153 | 39 681 |
| No. of diabetes mellitus deaths averted over 20 years | 3 091 | 251 | 514 | 702 | 814 | 810 |
| No. of ischaemic heart disease incident cases averted | 22 037 | 1 934 | 3 887 | 4 801 | 5 522 | 5 893 |
| No. of ischaemic heart disease deaths averted over 20 years | 5 574 | 488 | 976 | 1 221 | 1 405 | 1 484 |
| No. of stroke incident cases averted | 10 691 | 949 | 1 873 | 2 311 | 2 712 | 2 846 |
| No. of stroke deaths averted over 20 years | 4 280 | 378 | 752 | 930 | 1 094 | 1 126 |
| Total health-care cost savingsa over 20 years, billion Philippine pesos | 17.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Total reduction in out-of-pocket payments over 20 years, billion Philippine pesos | 10.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Changes in annual tax revenues, billion Philippine pesos | 44.7 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| No. of cases of catastrophic expenditure averted | 7 483 | 4 490 | 1 048 | 1 124 | 821 | 0 |
| Pass-through effect increased to 150% | ||||||
| No. of diabetes mellitus incident cases averted | 410 108 | 40 156 | 75 161 | 89 891 | 104 876 | 100 024 |
| No. of diabetes mellitus deaths averted over 20 years | 8 225 | 759 | 1 401 | 1 819 | 2 106 | 2 140 |
| No. of ischaemic heart disease incident cases averted | 57 185 | 5 030 | 9 912 | 12 389 | 14 371 | 15 483 |
| No. of ischaemic heart disease deaths averted over 20 years | 14 466 | 1 277 | 2 486 | 3 150 | 3 657 | 3 896 |
| No. of stroke incident cases averted | 27 819 | 2 499 | 4 802 | 5 990 | 7 043 | 7 485 |
| No. of stroke deaths averted over 20 years | 11 137 | 997 | 1 927 | 2 410 | 2 842 | 2 961 |
| Total health-care cost savingsa over 20 years, billion Philippine pesos | 43.3 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| Total reduction in out-of-pocket payments over 20 years, billion Philippine pesos | 25.5 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| Changes in annual tax revenues, billion Philippine pesos | 37.3 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 9.7 |
| No. of cases of catastrophic expenditure averted | 19 202 | 11 513 | 2 667 | 2 974 | 2 048 | 0 |
a Total health-care savings include savings on government costs and patients’ out-of-pocket payments.
Notes: The estimates for health care costs and tax revenues do not account for discounting and are in nominal terms. From January 2018, the tax on sweetened beverages was levied at 6 Philippine pesos per litre (United States dollars: 0.12). We projected effects over the 20-year period 2018–2037 Pass-through rate determines how much of the increase in tax is passed to consumers as an increase in retail prices instead of being absorbed or paid by distributors or manufacturers. Due to rounding, percentages may not total 100%.