Table 3. Summary findings for the sensitivity analysis for elasticity for the extended cost–effectiveness analysis of the sweetened beverages tax in the Philippines, 2018–2037.

Variable	Total	Quintile 1	Quintile 2	Quintile 3	Quintile 4	Quintile 5
Mean elasticity of −1.166 applied across quintiles
No. of diabetes mellitus incident cases averted	305 269	29 946	46 495	62 377	81 316	85 135
No. of diabetes mellitus deaths averted over 20 years	6 056	546	835	1 244	1 620	1 811
No. of ischaemic heart disease incident cases averted	42 087	3717	6 018	8396	10 932	13 024
No. of ischaemic heart disease deaths averted over 20 years	10 646	940	1 510	2 135	2 782	3 279
No. of stroke incident cases averted	20 427	1833	2 911	4 037	5 352	6 294
No. of stroke deaths averted over 20 years	8 172	731	1 167	1 624	2 160	2 490
Total health-care cost savings over 20 years, billion Philippine pesosa	32.2	3.1	4.8	6.5	8.7	9.1
Total reduction in out-of-pocket payments over 20 years, billion Philippine pesos	19.5	0.6	1.8	3.4	6.1	7.6
Changes in annual tax revenues, billion Philippine pesos	40.9	5.6	7.3	8.1	9.7	10.2
No. of cases of catastrophic expenditure averted	13 826	8 556	1 632	2 011	1 627	0

^a Total health-care savings include savings on government costs and patients’ out-of-pocket payments.

Notes: The estimates for health care costs and tax revenues do not account for discounting and are in nominal terms. From January 2018 the tax on sweetened beverages was levied at 6 Philippine pesos per litre (United States dollars: 0.12). We projected effects over the 20-year period 2018–2037 Own price elasticity of demand of a good is the change in quantity demanded of the good in response to a change in its own price. We obtained the mean elasticity of −1.166 by calculating a simple average of elasticity values across the five income quintiles from Mexico (−1.12 in Q1, −1.41 in Q2, −1.24 in Q3, −1.09 in Q4, −0.97 in Q5 (available in the data repository).²¹