TABLE 1.

VAR Models Predicting Firearm-Related Mortality Among White 1- to 5-year-olds (n = 41)

	Coefficient (95% Confidence Interval)
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Firearm-related 1–5 y white mortality rate at t−1	0.475** (0.185 to 0.765)	0.427* (0.100 to 0.754)	0.332 (−0.025 to 0.689)	0.311 (−0.054 to 0.676)
	0.148a	0.167a	0.182a	0.186a
White family firearm ownership at t−1
Proportion with firearms	0.493* (0.121 to 0.865)	0.491* (0.117 to 0.865)	0.467* (0.088 to 0.847)	—
	0.190a	0.191a	0.194a	—
Type of firearm (ref: no firearm)
Proportion with rifle and/or shotgun only	—	—	—	0.769 (−0.154 to 1.692)
	—	—	—	0.471a
Proportion with pistol and/or handgun (with or without rifle and/or shotgun)	—	—	—	0.426* (0.026 to 0.826)
	—	—	—	0.204a
Contextual factors at t−1
White unemployment rate	—	0.005 (−0.011 to 0.021)	0.004 (−0.018 to 0.026)	0.001 (−0.023 to 0.025)
	—	0.008a	0.011a	0.012a
Characteristics of white families who own firearms at t−1
Proportion who live in a rural area	—	—	0.251 (−0.127 to 0.629)	0.272 (−0.114 to 0.658)
	—	—	0.193a	0.197a
Proportion parents’ education without college degree	—	—	−0.290 (−0.649 to 0.069)	−0.252 (−0.628 to 0.124)
	—	—	0.183a	0.192a
Proportion live in the South	—	—	0.326 (−0.133 to 0.785)	0.239 (−0.282 to 0.760)
	—	—	0.234a	0.266a
Proportion with incomes in the bottom quartile	—	—	0.101 (−0.162 to 0.364)	0.066 (−0.218 to 0.350)
	—	—	0.134a	0.145a
Constant	0.018 (−0.154 to 0.190)	0.014 (−0.160 to 0.188)	0.117 (−0.326 to 0.560)	0.072 (−0.393 to 0.537)
	0.088a	0.089a	0.226a	0.237a
Trend	−0.001 (−0.003 to 0.001)	−0.001 (−0.003 to 0.001)	−0.004 (−0.008 to −0.000)	−0.002 (−0.008 to 0.004)
	0.001a	0.001a	0.002a	0.003a
Model fit
R2	0.759	0.761	0.801	0.804
Adjusted R2	0.739	0.734	0.750	0.745

t−1 refers to predicted relationship between variables in previous year with firearm-related mortality rate in current year. Trend term captures change in mortality due to average change over time. Ref, reference; —, not applicable.

^aSE is shown.

^*P < .05

^**P < .01