Table 1.
Characteristic | Garvan model | FRAX model |
---|---|---|
Risk factors considered | Sex Age No. of prior fractures No. of falls over the past 12 months Femoral neck BMD |
Sex Age Prior fracture (yes/no) Body weight Body height Femoral neck BMD Parental history of fracture Current smoking Alcohol (3 or more units/day) Chronic corticosteroid use Rheumatoid arthritis Secondary osteoporosis |
Method for selecting variables | Bayesian Model Averaging method | NA |
Adjustment for competing risk of mortality | No | Yes |
Statistical model | Cox proportional hazards | NA |
Output | 5- and 10-year risk of total fracture 5- and 10-year risk of hip fracture |
10-year risk of major fracture 10-year risk of hip fracture |
Typical AUC, median (range) | ||
Total fracture (in validation studies) | 0.74 (0.64–0.88) | 0.69 (0.54–0.83) |
Hip fracture (in validation studies) | 0.79 (0.67–0.85) | 0.78 (0.70–0.88) |
Website | Garvan.org.org/bone-fracture-risk | shef.ac.uk/FRAX |
BMD, bone mineral density; NA, not available; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
Data were derived from Nguyen and Eisman. J Clin Densitom 2017;20:368–78 [53].
FRAX (Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK), Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, Australia).