Table 2.

Base-case and sensitivity analyses

	Description	French coverage
Base case analysis	Vaccination coverage of MMR dose 1 and 2	Dose 1: 90%; Dose 2: 80%
	Time for replacement (MMR by MMRV)	3 years
	Catch-up program	No catch-up
	Exogenous/endogenous boosting	Included and relative weighting depends on scenario
	Contact matrix	Empirical
	Vaccine protection	Post-dose 1: 17 years; Post-dose 2: lifelong protection
Sensitivity analysis	Waning natural immunity (average duration 10 years – base case) changed to 2 and 20 years	bc: δ = 0.1 Low: δ = 0.05 High: δ = 0.5
	Reactivation rate of infectious zoster, by age group for δ = 0.1
	0–4 years	0.028
	5–9 years	0.009
	10–14 years	0.0068
	15–24 years	0.0035
	25–44 years	0.0033
	45–64 years	0.008
	≥65+ years	0.016
	Reactivation rate of infectious zoster, by age group for δ = 0.5
	0–4 years	0.00769
	5–9 years	0.00339
	10–14 years	0.00326
	15–24 years	0.00227
	25–44 years	0.00256
	45–64 years	0.00646
	≥65+ years	0.01387
	Reactivation rate of infectious zoster, by age group for δ = 0.05
	0–4 years	0.05478
	5–9 years	0.01666
	10–14 years	0.01183
	15–24 years	0.00548
	25–44 years	0.00453
	45–64 years	0.01035
	≥65+ years	0.01991

δ, waning natural immunity (average duration 10 years), bc base case (scenario), MMR measles, mumps, and rubella, MMRV measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella