Table 5.
Multivariate prediction models for mortality based on medical history, physical examination, and hemogram data at hospitalization
| Model* | OR (95% CI) | AUC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Model 1: Medical history | ||
| Previous hospitalization | 2.10 (1.03, 4.25) | 0.74 (0.67, 0.80) |
| Model 2: Signs/symptoms | ||
| Myalgia | 0.20 (0.08, 0.50) | 0.93 (0.90, 0.96) |
| Abdominal pain | 0.36 (0.16, 0.79) | |
| Respiratory distress | 8.00 (2.58, 24.6) | |
| Impaired consciousness | 10.2 (3.81, 27.1) | |
| Jaundice | 8.85 (1.67, 46.9) | |
| Cyanosis | 20.5 (2.04, 205.2) | |
| Model 3: Vital signs | ||
| HR (per 10 bpm increment) | 1.79 (1.51, 2.12) | 0.91 (0.87, 0.94) |
| SBP (per 10 mmHg decrement) | 1.28 (1.06, 1.56) | |
| Model 4: Hemogram | ||
| Hematocrit (per 1% increment) | 0.92 (0.88, 0.96) | 0.84 (0.79, 0.89) |
| WBC (per 1,000/mL increment) | 1.13 (1.05, 1.21) | |
| Model 5: Composite | ||
| Age (per 10 year increment) | 2.45 (1.77, 3.41) | 0.97 (0.96, 0.99) |
| Retro-ocular pain | 0.23 (0.06, 0.96) | |
| Nausea | 0.29 (0.09, 0.94) | |
| Diarrhea | 0.19 (0.05, 0.68) | |
| Respiratory distress | 16.3 (4.11, 64.4) | |
| Impaired consciousness | 15.9 (4.22, 59.6) | |
| Jaundice | 32.2 (2.50, 414.1) | |
| HR (per 10 bpm increment) | 2.01 (1.55, 2.61) | |
AUC = area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve; CI = confidence interval; HR = heart rate (beats per minute); OR = odds ratio; SBP = systolic blood pressure (mmHg); WBC = white blood cells.
* All models adjusted by age, gender, duration of disease at hospital admission, and health-care plan.