Table 2. Baseline LSM and HA for predicting death, liver-related death and first cirrhotic complication during follow-up.
The tables shows the used cut-offs for LSM and HA as well as cut-offs yielding 90% sensitivity or specificity for each individual test.
| Cut-off | Patients above cut-off (%) | Sens (%) | Spe (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline LSM (kPa) | All-cause death | AUC 0.70 (95% CI 0.62–0.78) | ||||||||
|
LSM 10–16.9kPa LSM 17-75kPa |
10 | 31.6 | 61.8 | 72.3 | 22.5 | 93.6 | ||||
| 17 | 14.7 | 47.1 | 90.0 | 40.0 | 92.9 | |||||
| Cut-off for 90% sensitivity | 5 | 79.7 | 90.0 | 21.6 | 12.9 | 94.2 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% specificity | 17 | 14.7 | 47.1 | 90.0 | 40.0 | 92.9 | ||||
| Liver-related deatha | AUC 0.93 (95% CI 0.89–0.98) | |||||||||
| LSM 10–16.9kPa | 10 | 31.6 | 96.3 | 71.5 | 14.0 | 99.8 | ||||
| LSM 17-75kPa | 17 | 14.7 | 85.2 | 88.7 | 26.7 | 99.2 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% sensitivity | 14 | 20.1 | 90.0 | 83.2 | 20.5 | 99.4 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% specificity | 19 | 13.0 | 85.2 | 90.0 | 29.1 | 99.2 | ||||
| First cirrhotic complicationb | AUC 0.89 (95% CI 0.82–0.97) | |||||||||
| LSM 10–16.9kPa | 10 | 28.1 | 90.0 | 75.4 | 17.0 | 99.3 | ||||
| LSM 17-75kPa | 17 | 11.2 | 66.7 | 91.9 | 31.5 | 98.0 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% sensitivity | 12 | 20.4 | 90.0 | 83.5 | 22.8 | 99.3 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% specificity | 15 | 12.8 | 73.3 | 90.0 | 29.0 | 98.4 | ||||
| Baseline HA (ng/mL) | All-cause death | AUC 0.68 (95% CI 0.60–0.76) | ||||||||
| Median HA for group 17-75kPa | 200 | 9.3 | 39.4 | 95.4 | 52.7 | 92.4 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% sensitivity | 14 | 84.9 | 90.0 | 15.9 | 12.2 | 92.4 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% specificity | 117 | 14.6 | 45.5 | 90.0 | 37.2 | 92.7 | ||||
| Liver-related deatha | AUC 0.93 (95% CI 0.88–0.99) | |||||||||
| Median HA for group 17-75kPa | 200 | 9.3 | 76.9 | 94.6 | 40.7 | 98.8 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% sensitivity | 40 | 45.2 | 90.0 | 57.6 | 9.3 | 99.2 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% specificity | 125 | 14.0 | 84.6 | 90.0 | 29.0 | 99.2 | ||||
| First cirrhotic complicationb | AUC 0.89 (95% CI 0.83–0.94) | |||||||||
| Median HA for group 17-75kPa | 200 | 6 | 46.7 | 93.3 | 28 | 96.9 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% sensitivity | 62 | 26.3 | 90 | 73.8 | 16 | 99 | ||||
| Cut-off for 90% specificity | 131 | 10.1 | 70 | 90 | 28 | 98.2 | ||||
| Combined modelc | All-cause death | AUC 0.74 (95% CI 0.67–0.80)d | ||||||||
| Liver-related deatha | AUC 0.94 (95% CI 0.91–0.98)d | |||||||||
| First cirrhotic complicationb | AUC 0.91 (95% CI 0.85–0.98) | |||||||||
Sens; sensitivity. Spe; Specificity. PPV; positive predictive value. NPV; negative predictive value
a Model for liver-related deaths for patients >30 years of age.
b Model for cirrhotic complications excluding the patients <30 years and the 29 patients who already had a complication at baseline.
cCombined model for LSM and HA. Cut-offs are displayed in the supplementary material (S4 Table).
dSignificantly higher AUC for death/death from liver disease than bLSM or bHA alone (p = 0.034 and 0.001/0.001 and 0.006, respectively)