Fig. 1.
Visual predictive check and model prediction of the overall survival models. a Left graph is the VPC of the Cmin1-based OS model. Right graph is the VPC of the Cavg-based OS model. The shaded areas indicate the predicted OS in the control (green) and experimental (blue) arm; the solid blue lines describe the corresponding observed OS signals. b Overall survival as predicted by Cmin1-based model (left panel) and the Cavg-based model (right panel). The solid red lines describe the change in HR as a function of Cmin1 and Cavg; the grey histograms describe the distribution of olaratumab Cmin1 and Cavg in the study JGDG experimental arm together with their quartiles (dashed blue lines); the green dashed lines indicate ECmin150 and ECavg50. Cavg = average concentration over patient’s entire treatment. Cmin1 = trough serum concentration at the end of Cycle 1. ECavg50 = olaratumab Cavg yielding a 50% decrease in the baseline hazard. ECmin150=olaratumab Cmin1 yielding a 50% decrease in the baseline hazard. HR hazard ratio, OS overall survival, VPC visual predictive check