Table 1. Estimated difference in incidence (% and 95% CI) of alcohol drinking and tobacco cigarette smoking across different time periods based on the National Minimum Drinking Age Act and the Synar Amendment.
| Age | Period 3 vs. Period 2 | Period 3 vs. Period 1 | Period 2 vs. Period 1 | Period 3 vs. Period 0 | Period 2 vs. Period 0 | Period 1 vs. Period 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcohol | ||||||
| 12 | −3.6 (−5.2,−2.0) | −3.9 (−5.8,−1.9) | −0.3 (−2.2,1.7) | −15.9 (−20.9,−10.9) | −12.3 (−17.3,−7.3) | −12.1 (−17.2,−6.9) |
| 13 | −4.7 (−6.3,−3.1) | −5.5 (−7.6,−3.4) | −0.8 (−2.9,1.4) | −19.2 (−23.5,−14.8) | −14.4 (−18.8,−10.1) | −13.7 (−18.3,−9.1) |
| 14 | −5.0 (−7.3,−2.7) | −4.3 (−7.0,−1.5) | 0.7 (−2.0,3.5) | −14.1 (−19.9,−8.4) | −9.1 (−14.8,−3.4) | −9.9 (−15.8,−3.9) |
| 15 | −4.4 (−6.5,−2.3) | −2.1 (−4.9,0.7) | 2.3 (−0.5,5.1) | −22.6 (−28.8,−16.3) | −18.1 (−24.4,−11.9) | −20.5 (−27.0,−13.9) |
| 16 | −2.4 (−4.2,−0.6) | −3.4 (−6.0,−0.9) | −1.0 (−3.6,1.6) | −17.9 (−24.0,−11.9) | −15.5 (−21.5,−9.5) | −14.5 (−20.8,−8.2) |
| 17 | −2.6 (−4.5,−0.6) | −1.3 (−4.6,2.0) | 1.3 (−2.1,4.6) | −18.3 (−26.0,−10.5) | −15.7 (−23.5,−8.0) | −17.0 (−25.2,−8.8) |
| 18 | 1.1 (−1.7,3.9) | 4.7 (0.1,9.3) | 3.6 (−1.0,8.2) | −14.7 (−25.6,−3.7) | −15.8 (−26.8,−4.9) | −19.4 (−30.9,−7.9) |
| 19 | −2.0 (−4.7,0.6) | 2.1 (−2.3,6.4) | 4.1 (−0.3,8.5) | −22.6 (−32.6,−12.6) | −20.6 (−30.6,−10.6) | −24.7 (−35.3,−14.1) |
| 20 | 0.4 (−2.6,3.4) | 6.4 (1.9,10.9) | 6.0 (1.4,10.6) | −12.4 (−26.0,1.2) | −12.8 (−26.4,0.8) | −18.8 (−32.8,−4.8) |
| 21 | 13.1 (8.4,17.8) | 27.3 (20.4,34.2) | 14.2 (7.2,21.1) | 29.4 (16.1,42.7) | 16.3 (2.9,29.7) | 2.1 (−12.2,16.4) |
| 22–23 | 1.8 (0.6,2.9) | 3.8 (2.3,5.2) | 2.0 (0.6,3.4) | −0.4 (−5.7,5.0) | −2.1 (−7.5,3.2) | −4.1 (−9.6,1.3) |
| Tobacco | ||||||
| 12 | −3.1 (−4.3,−1.9) | −8.0 (−9.5,−6.4) | −4.8 (−6.4,−3.3) | −8.1 (−10.0,−6.1) | −4.9 (−6.9,−3.0) | −0.1 (−2.3,2.1) |
| 13 | −3.9 (−6.3,−1.6) | −9.6 (−12.2,−7.0) | −5.7 (−8.1,−3.2) | −8.2 (−11.2,−5.3) | −4.3 (−7.1,−1.4) | 1.4 (−1.7,4.5) |
| 14 | −4.1 (−6.5,−1.7) | −9.5 (−12.2,−6.7) | −5.4 (−8.0,−2.8) | −5.1 (−8.1,−2.1) | −1.0 (−3.9,1.9) | 4.4 (1.2,7.5) |
| 15 | −3.7 (−5.9,−1.5) | −7.7 (−10.3,−5.1) | −4.0 (−6.5,−1.5) | −3.5 (−6.5,−0.4) | 0.2 (−2.7,3.1) | 4.2 (1.0,7.5) |
| 16 | −3.3 (−4.8,−1.8) | −6.3 (−8.4,−4.3) | −3.0 (−5.0,−1.0) | −0.7 (−3.0,1.6) | 2.6 (0.3,4.8) | 5.6 (3.0,8.2) |
| 17 | −0.9 (−2.6,0.8) | −4.5 (−6.9,−2.2) | −3.6 (−5.9,−1.3) | 1.8 (−1.1,4.8) | 2.7 (−0.2,5.7) | 6.3 (3.0,9.7) |
| 18 | 2.4 (−0.4,5.1) | 3.8 (0.5,7.1) | 1.4 (−1.7,4.5) | 12.0 (8.5,15.4) | 9.6 (6.3,12.9) | 8.2 (4.4,11.9) |
| 19 | 1.8 (>−0.1,3.6) | 1.3 (−1.2,3.8) | −0.5 (−2.9,1.9) | 5.1 (2.0,8.1) | 3.3 (0.3,6.2) | 3.8 (0.3,7.2) |
| 20 | 1.6 (0.1,3.2) | 1.1 (−1.0,3.1) | −0.6 (−2.4,1.3) | 4.1 (1.6,6.6) | 2.4 (0.0,4.8) | 3.0 (0.3,5.7) |
| 21 | −0.1 (−1.7,1.5) | −0.7 (−2.9,1.5) | −0.6 (−2.7,1.4) | 4.5 (2.3,6.7) | 4.6 (2.5,6.7) | 5.2 (2.7,7.8) |
| 22–23 | 0.2 (−0.2,0.7) | 0.6 (0.1,1.1) | 0.3 (−0.2,0.8) | 1.4 (0.8,1.9) | 1.1 (0.6,1.6) | 0.8 (0.2,1.3) |
Notes:
Data from NSDUH, 1979–2015.
For alcohol drinking, Period 0 = 1979–1986, Period 1 = 1987–1996, Period 2 = 1997–2006, Period 3 = 2007–2015; for tobacco smoking, Period 0 = 1979–1992, Period 1 = 1993–1999, Period 2 = 2000–2007, Period 3 = 2008–2015. Bold font indicates statistical significance at 0.05 level.