Table 2.

Model parameters affecting the dynamics of prevalence over time

Part A: Natural remission parameters derived from NESARC study
		Prob. entering subgroup given remission		Annual natural remission rates (without treatment)
Gender	Age band	Former AD abstainer	Former AD drinker	Mild AD	Moderate AD	Severe AD	Complex needs
Male	18–24	26%	74%	12%	12%	12%	12%
	25–34	26%	74%	10%	10%	10%	10%
	35–54	26%	74%	8%	8%	8%	8%
	≥55	26%	74%	6%	6%	6%	6%
Female	18–24	26%	74%	12%	12%	12%	12%
	25–34	26%	74%	10%	10%	10%	10%
	35–54	26%	74%	8%	8%	8%	8%
	≥55	26%	74%	6%	6%	6%	6%
Part B: Relapse parameters
		Annual relapse rate to alcohol dependence from former dependence		Probability of entering each subgroup given relapse (assumed the same %s as baseline prevalence for the example Local Authority)
Gender	Age band	Former AD abstainer	Former AD drinker	Mild AD	Moderate AD	Severe AD	Complex needs
Male	18–24	3.4%	12.2%	45.0%	43.6%	10.5%	0.8%
	25–34	2.8%	10.2%	47.8%	42.0%	9.5%	0.7%
	35–54	1.9%	7.4%	54.5%	37.7%	6.8%	1.0%
	≥55	1.0%	4.5%	65.9%	28.0%	3.5%	2.6%
Female	18–24	3.4%	12.2%	51.8%	39.0%	7.3%	1.9%
	25–34	2.8%	10.2%	64.2%	26.4%	2.7%	6.7%
	35–54	1.9%	7.4%	63.5%	28.6%	3.7%	4.2%
	≥55	1.0%	4.5%	72.2%	12.7%	0.0%	15.1%
Part C: Mortality rates per 1,000 population per annum parameters
Gender	Age band	Never alcohol dependent	Former AD abstainer	Former AD drinker	Currently alcohol dependent
Male	18–24	0.00048	0.00047	0.00083	0.00135
	25–34	0.00066	0.00066	0.00116	0.00190
	35–54	0.00220	0.00228	0.00397	0.00650
	≥55	0.02897	0.03262	0.05551	0.08789
Female	18–24	0.00019	0.00047	0.00082	0.00134
	25–34	0.00034	0.00083	0.00144	0.00235
	35–54	0.00144	0.00361	0.00627	0.01024
	≥55	0.02838	0.08109	0.13330	0.20137

Notes: NESARC = National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions; AD = alcohol dependent.