Table 1:
Simulations performed with the chemical transport model (CTM) GEOS-Chem and the seven-reservoir global biogeochemical cycle (GBC) model11,16. Current Policy (CP), New Policy (NP), and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) refer to future global emissions scenarios developed by Pacyna et al.9. A number of simulations listed here were performed to check the robustness of the method (see S.I. Section 1.1).
| Simulation | CTM Meteorological year simulated: 2010* |
Global biogeochemical cycle (GBC) model Years simulated: 2000 BCE-2100 CE |
|---|---|---|
| BASE | 2010 AMAP/UNEP inventory17 and emissions controls18 **. | Street et al.19 from 2000 BCE to 2008 CE. CP from 2009 onward. |
| PRE-2010 LEGACY | Primary anthropogenic emissions zeroed out. | Primary anthropogenic emissions completely eliminated as of 2010. |
| FUTURE | Future (CP, NP or MFR) emissions inventories9. | NP or MFR implemented in YYYY = 2010, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 or 2050. |
| PRE-YYYY LEGACY | Same as PRE-2010 LEGACY since 2010-YYYY emissions are not taken into account | Primary anthropogenic emissions completely eliminated as of: YYYY = 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 or 2050. |
The model was run for meteorological years 2007-2010, with the first three years used as the initialization period. We used consistent 2007-2010 meteorology for present and future runs to isolate the effect of emissions.
In order to evaluate present-day model outputs against observations and account for inter-annual variability, this simulation was also performed for meteorological years 2009-2015 following a three-year spin-up.