Fig 1. Negative binomial generalized estimating equation models of the relationship between the numbers of passive single I. scapularis tick submissions and reported Lyme disease cases per CSD, over 2 years.

Numbers of tick submissions for all I. scapularis (adults and nymphs) in Ontario and Manitoba are illustrated respectively in A and B, whereas the numbers of nymphal tick submissions for Ontario are shown in C. The numbers of reported Lyme disease cases per CSD are illustrated by the circles and the model prediction by the solid line (dashed lines show the 95% confidence limits for the fitted model). Note that there are differences in the axis scales between the Figs.