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. 2019 Feb 8;98(6):e14195. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000014195

Figure 4.

Figure 4

The forecasting curves of the single SARIMA model, SARIMA-SVR hybrid model and the actual HFMD incidence series in Wuhan (2017). (A) Show the forecasting curves of the single SARIMA model, SARIMA-SVR hybrid model and the actual HFMD incidence series in Wuhan (2017). (B) The forecasted incidences of single SARIMA model and SARIMA-SVR hybrid model are consistent with the changing trend of the actual incidence and matched the actual incidence well with 2 epidemic peaks from April to July and October to December. (C) The forecasted incidence of the SARIMA-SVR hybrid model fitted better than the single SARIMA model, which verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the SARIMA-SVR hybrid model. HFMD = hand-foot-mouth disease, SARIMA = seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, SVR = support vector regression.