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. 2019 Feb 21;17:43. doi: 10.1186/s12916-019-1269-x

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© The Author(s). 2019

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Fig. 5 — Sensitivity of mean intervention impact on HBV incidence (HBsAg) and HBeAg+ prevalence based on combinations of routine neonatal vaccination and PMTCT. A1, A2 Mean impact of interventions on HBV incidence (HBsAg) (A1) and mean time to reach Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (A2). B1, B2 Mean impact of interventions on HBeAg+ prevalence (B2) and mean time to reach elimination target (B2). For all subplots, impact is shown as percent reduction in incidence or prevalence compared to pre-intervention levels (e.g. 50 indicates a 50% reduction compared to before the start of the intervention). HBV incidence (HBsAg) SDG is set to a reduction of 90%. HBeAg+ prevalence target is set to 1/1000 individuals. Mean results are obtained from 50 stochastic simulations per intervention combination (vaccination, PMTCT) with parameters sampled from the posteriors shown in Additional file 2: Figure S1. Start of interventions in the stochastic simulations is in year 1995 to simulate an appropriate time scale to address impact by 2030