Table 2. Forecasting metrics and scores of the best semi-mechanistic model variant compared to null models.

The values shown are the same scores as in Fig 3, for forecasting horizons up to three weeks. The p-values for calibration highlighted in bold reflect predictive models with no evidence of miscalibration.

Model	Calibration	Sharpness	Bias	RPS	DSS	AE
1 week ahead
Semi-mechanistic	0.26	91	0.13	31	9.2	42
Autoregressive	0.1	61	-0.17	31	9.1	43
Deterministic	0.03	340	0.24	97	11	130
Unfocused	<0.01	41	-0.024	35	13	47
2 weeks ahead
Semi-mechanistic	0.14	150	0.2	50	12	65
Autoregressive	0.03	77	-0.18	43	9.9	60
Deterministic	<0.01	400	0.35	120	12	160
Unfocused	<0.01	42	-0.044	48	16	61
3 weeks ahead
Semi-mechanistic	0.03	230	0.3	81	15	93
Autoregressive	0.02	90	-0.17	53	11	73
Deterministic	<0.01	490	0.45	160	13	210
Unfocused	<0.01	44	-0.058	60	29	71