Table 2.

Comparison of the top three statistical models (Delphi-DeltaDensity1, ReichLab-KCDE, ReichLab-SARIMA2) and the top three compartmental models, (LANL-DBM, CU-EKF_SIRS, CU-RHF_SIRS) (Table 1) based on best average region–season forecast score

	Score
	Statistical	Compartmental
Target	model	model	Difference
1 wk ahead	0.49	0.43	0.06
2 wk ahead	0.40	0.41	−0.01
3 wk ahead	0.35	0.34	0.00
4 wk ahead	0.32	0.30	0.02
Season onset	0.23	0.22	0.01
Season peak percentage	0.32	0.27	0.05
Season peak week	0.34	0.32	0.02

The difference column represents the difference in the average probability assigned to the eventual outcome for the target in each row. Positive values indicate the top statistical models showed higher average score than the top compartmental models.