Table 2.
Projected direct VE calculated in a hypothetical population compared with true and observed direct VE
| Direct VE | 2010%, (95% CI) |
2011%, (95% CI) |
2012%, (95% CI) |
2013%, (95% CI) |
2014%, (95% CI) |
2015%, (95% CI) |
2016%, (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truea | 95 (90,98) | 95 (93, 97) | 95 (87, 98) | 95 (92, 97) | 95 (82, 99) | 95 (92, 97) | 95 (80, 99) |
| Observedb | 87 (73, 94) | 91 (83, 95) | 78 (59, 89) | 88 (78, 94) | 67 (15, 86) | 90 (79, 96) | 70 (−10, 90) |
| Projectedc | 84 (71, 91) | 91 (87, 94) | 77 (56, 88) | 90 (84, 94) | 67 (35, 83) | 89 (82, 93) | 64 (29, 82) |
aTrue VE is a set value used in the calculations
bObserved VE is direct VE estimated using the MarketScan® Commercial Database data
cProjected VE is the direct VE calculated in a hypothetical population of 1,000,000 with vaccine coverage of 50%, true VE of 95%, sensitivity of 0.5, specificity of 0.99, and estimated RVGE incidence among unvaccinated children based on the MarketScan® data for each year from 2010 to 2016