Table 2.

Best performing models for estimating ψ₀ = E₀(Y |W, A, S) for the vaccine and placebo groups of the CYD14 trial. For both the vaccine and placebo groups the model with the lowest CV-MSE was a logistic regression (glm) using variables selected from the screen screen.MNv2 in Table 1.

Model Term	Coefficient	Odds Ratio	2-Sided P-value
Vaccine Model
(Intercept)	1.09	2.96	0.26
AGE.9.11	−0.09	0.91	0.74
AGE.12.14	−2.46	0.09	<0.01
MALE	−0.36	0.70	0.09
M13.MNv2.S1b	−3.62	0.03	<0.01
M13.MNv2.S2	0.77	2.16	0.02
M13.MNv2.S3	1.41	4.09	0.04
M13.MNv2.S4	−0.12	0.89	0.81
M13.MNv2.Avec	3.45	31.53	<0.01
M13.MNv2.Min	−3.53	0.03	<0.01
M13.MNv2.Max	−0.59	0.55	0.28
Sero2.frequencyd	−0.91	<0.01	<0.01
Sero3.frequency	−0.57	<0.01	<0.01
Sero4.frequency	−0.38	0.02	<0.01
Placebo Model
(Intercept)	1.97	7.16	0.01
AGE.9.11	0.84	2.32	<0.01
AGE.12.14	−0.17	0.85	0.55
MALE	0.04	1.04	0.82
M13.MNv2.S1b	−1.10	0.33	<0.01
M13.MNv2.S2	0.25	1.29	0.34
M13.MNv2.S3	0.56	1.76	0.10
M13.MNv2.S4	0.06	1.06	0.84
M13.MNv2.Avec	1.01	2.75	0.43
M13.MNv2.Min	−2.62	0.07	<0.01
M13.MNv2.Max	−0.25	0.78	0.51
Sero2.frequencyd	−0.72	<0.01	<0.01
Sero3.frequency	−0.54	<0.01	<0.01
Sero4.frequency	−0.46	<0.01	<0.01

^aThe reference age category is 2–8 year olds.

^bM13.MNv2.S1 is the binary indicator of a Month 13 positive response to serotype 1 using the MNv2 assay, with positive response defined by MNv2 serotype neutralization titer ⩾ 10. M13.MNv2.S2–M13.MNv2.S4 are defined similarly.

^cM13.MNv2.Ave, M13.MNv2.Min, and M13.MNv2.Max coefficients are per one log₁₀ increase in neutralization titer value.

^dSerotype frequency variable coefficients are per 0.10 increase in the estimated serotype frequency of a participant’s country.