Table 8:

Natural History Inputs, Reference Case Analysis: Major Depression and Anxiety Disorders

Model Parameter	Mean	Source
Probability of dropout, major depression/anxiety		van Ballegooijen et al, 201492
Face-to-face CBT	0.16
Unguided iCBT	0.32/0.75a
Guided iCBT	0.19
Probability of dropout, major depression/anxiety		Machado et al, 200694
Sertraline	0.10
All SSRIs	0.28 (0.19–0.38)a
Probability of self-recovery after dropout (no treatment)	0.25	Guidelines, expert opinion77
Probability of adding medication		Koeser et al, 201593
iCBT/CBT	0.23
Usual care	0.70

Abbreviations: CBT, cognitive behavioural disorder; iCBT, internet-delivered CBT; CI, confidence interval; SSRI, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor.

^aValues used in sensitivity analysis.