Table 24:
Scenario Analysis Results, A Lower Trisomy 21 Risk Cutoff for Traditional Prenatal Screening in Second-Tier NIPT
| Scenario | Total Costs (95% CrI), $ | Cases Detected (95% CrI), n | Diagnostic Tests Performed (95% CrI), n | Diagnostic-Procedure-Related Pregnancy Losses (95% CrI), n | Affected Live Births (95% CrI), n | Incremental Cost Per Case Detected, First-Tier vs. Second-Tier NIPT, $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acceptance of further testing after a positive result from traditional prenatal screening: 76% (same as reference case) | 28,949,494 (25,455,144–32,548,127) | All: 195 (153–247) Trisomy 21: 154 (117–202) Trisomy 18: 41 (23–65) Trisomy 13: 0 (0–2) |
908 (782–1,047) | 1 (0–3) | All: 174 (148–201) Trisomy 21: 129 (106–152) Trisomy 18: 24 (15–35) Trisomy 13: 21 (13–31) |
415,702 |
| Acceptance of further testing after a positive result from traditional prenatal screening: 90% | 29,488,926 (25,937,229–32,769,117) | All: 231 (181–288) Trisomy 21: 182 (140–234) Trisomy 18: 49 (27–76) Trisomy 13: 0 (0–2) |
1,055 (920–1,210) | 1 (0–4) | All: 161 (135–188) Trisomy 21: 117 (94–140) Trisomy 18: 23 (13–34) Trisomy 13: 21 (12–31) |
758,384 |
Abbreviations: CrI, credible interval; N, number; NIPT, noninvasive prenatal screening.
Note: Numbers may appear inexact due to rounding.
a
Incremental cost per case detected for first-tier NIPT (see Table 18 for reference case results) versus second-tier NIPT (the present scenario).