Table 31:
Budget Impact Analysis Results, Scenario Analyses
| Cost, $ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Strategy | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
| Increased Uptake of First-Tier NIPTa | ||||||
| 80% | First-tier NIPT | 68,838,602 | 69,549,495 | 70,267,158 | 70,992,559 | 71,724,730 |
| Net budget impact | — | 42,673,507 | 43,114,195 | 43,559,079 | 44,008,760 | 44,462,637 |
| 90% | First-tier NIPT | 76,058,807 | 76,844,263 | 77,637,199 | 78,438,684 | 79,247,650 |
| Net budget impact | — | 49,893,713 | 50,408,963 | 50,929,120 | 51,454,885 | 51,985,557 |
| 100% | First-tier NIPT | 82,914,952 | 83,771,210 | 84,635,624 | 85,509,357 | 86,391,245 |
| Net budget impact | — | 56,749,857 | 57,335,910 | 57,927,545 | 58,525,558 | 59,129,153 |
| Inclusion of Sex Chromosome Aneuploidies in First-Tier NIPTa | ||||||
| Inclusion of sex chromosome aneuploidies | First-tier NIPT | 67,862,207 | 68,563,017 | 69,270,501 | 69,985,613 | 70,707,399 |
| Net budget impact | — | 41,697,113 | 42,127,717 | 42,562,422 | 43,001,814 | 43,445,307 |
| Inclusion of Sex Chromosome Aneuploidies and 22q11.2 Deletion in First-Tier NIPTa | ||||||
| Inclusion of sex chromosome aneuploidies and 22q11.2 deletion | First-tier NIPT | 87,074,733 | 87,973,950 | 88,881,730 | 89,799,298 | 90,725,429 |
| Net budget impact | — | 60,909,639 | 61,538,649 | 62,173,651 | 62,815,499 | 63,463,337 |
| Varying Price of NIPT | ||||||
| $200 | Second-tier NIPT | 25,602,889 | 25,867,288 | 26,134,206 | 26,404,002 | 26,676,316 |
| First-tier NIPT | 41,961,236 | 42,394,567 | 42,832,026 | 43,274,201 | 43,720,503 | |
| Net budget impact | — | 16,358,347 | 16,527,279 | 16,697,820 | 16,870,199 | 17,044,187 |
| $300 | Second-tier NIPT | 25,925,135 | 26,192,862 | 26,463,139 | 26,736,331 | 27,012,072 |
| First-tier NIPT | 51,368,130 | 51,898,606 | 52,434,134 | 52,975,436 | 53,521,791 | |
| Net budget impact | — | 25,442,995 | 25,705,744 | 25,970,995 | 26,239,106 | 26,509,719 |
| $500 | Second-tier NIPT | 26,619,188 | 26,894,083 | 27,171,596 | 27,452,101 | 27,735,224 |
| First-tier NIPT | 70,810,038 | 71,541,290 | 72,279,506 | 73,025,681 | 73,778,821 | |
| Net budget impact | — | 44,190,851 | 44,647,207 | 45,107,910 | 45,573,580 | 46,043,597 |
| Funding First-Tier NIPT for Pregnant People 35–39 Years Oldb | ||||||
| Funding for pregnant people 35–39 years old | Second-tier NIPT | 5,299,305 | 5,353,931 | 5,409,313 | 5,465,073 | 5,521,401 |
| First-tier NIPT | 12,031,706 | 12,155,731 | 12,281,472 | 12,408,072 | 12,535,960 | |
| Net budget impact | — | 6,732,401 | 6,801,800 | 6,872,159 | 6,942,999 | 7,014,559 |
Abbreviation: NIPT, noninvasive prenatal testing.
Note: Some numbers may appear inexact due to rounding. All costs are in 2017 Canadian dollars.
This scenario did not affect the cost of second-tier NIPT. We estimated the net budget impact using the cost of first-tier NIPT in this scenario minus the total cost of second-tier NIPT in the reference case.
This subgroup accounted for about 20% of average-risk pregnant people < 40 years old. Assuming that the proportion of pregnant people in this age group would be constant over the next 5 years, we estimated that the target population in this subgroup would be 28,036 in year 1, 28,325 in year 2, 28,618 in year 3, 28,913 in year 4, and 29,211 in year 5.