Fig. 3.

Observed and predicted dengue human cases across various cities between 2005–2015. The observed number of human cases in outbreak years (the gray shaded area) during 2005–2014 is used for model simulation and parameter estimation. The model was reinitialized using a plausible range of infectious periods at the beginning of each outbreak year. The median estimates of human cases (red lines) and corresponding confidence intervals (red shaded area) for both simulation and forecasts were compared with observed data (black lines) on the logarithmic scale.