Table II.

Bayesian estimates of expected accuracy for identifying top 10% of hospitals.

	Sensitivity			Specificity
Method	Direct	Posterior median	95%CI	Direct	Posterior median	95% CI
DIR	0.760	0.765	(0.546, 0.874)	0.974	0.974	(0.950, 0.986)
SHR	0.773	0.778	(0.573, 0.878)	0.975	0.975	(0.953, 0.986)
PR0B1	0.765	0.771	(0.566, 0.871)	0.974	0.975	(0.952, 0.986)
PROB2	0.773	0.778	(0.574, 0.878)	0.975	0.975	(0.953, 0.986)

Note: CI: credible interval. In PROB1 method (P_prob = 0:9). In PROB2 method $\left(C_{prob}=\mu +\tau {\mathrm{\Phi }}^{-1}(0.9)\right)$.

Direct: plug-in estimates.

DIR, direct method; SHR, shrinkage method.