Figure 11.

State transition analysis of unmodified Model 3 assuming a maximum of 10 molecules (including attachment reaction KinU → KinA). We show all set of states that the system can be in (2⁴ = 16 set states, whereby the actual state space is 1,001, depending on the distribution of the 10 molecules). The green state refers to the checkpoint inactivation (“go”), the red one to the initial state and the yellow ones to intermediate states. States depicted in black cannot be reached in our model and are not interesting, following the criteria in Sec. 3.1.2. Depending on the reaction rates of the model, the estimated time to leave a state is depicted in green, where an infinite time means that this state is never left. The blue arrows indicate the propensity to go into the state the arrow is pointing at (black numbers correlate with the regarding arrows thickness). Those numbers can be seen as likelihood of the state transition and are calculated exactly based on the model. See³² for method details.