Table 2. Accuracy of forecasts incorporating vs. omitting absolute humidity forcing by observed lead week for both peak timing and intensity.
| Obs. Lead Week: | -6 | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timing | AH | 4.8% | 18.6% | 36.7% | 47.3% | 54.4% | 53.6% | 55.4% | 70.9% | 80.2% | 82.1% | 82.0% |
| No AH | 2.0% | 13.2% | 32.3% | 41.8% | 50.4% | 48.3% | 50.4% | 71.6% | 81.4% | 83.6% | 83.3% | |
| Sig. | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Intensity | AH | 6.9% | 10.1% | 18.9% | 26.3% | 40.3% | 56.8% | 70.1% | 86.7% | 90.2% | 91.0% | 90.1% |
| No AH | 4.2% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 25.2% | 41.6% | 52.8% | 68.4% | 87.4% | 90.4% | 91.8% | 91.1% | |
| Sig. | ** | ** | ** | * | ||||||||
* p<0.001,
**p<0.0001