Table 3.

Performance of Final Single Prediction Model in VICTORY Consortium Validation Cohort

	Clinical remission 26 weeks	Corticosteroid- free remission 26 weeks*	Mucosal healing 26 weeks	Deep Remission 26 weeks	Corticosteroid- free Deep Remission 26 weeks*
Nagelkerke R2	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.07
Brier score	0.24	0.18	0.16	0.11	0.09
ROC-AUC (95% CI)	0.67 (0.63, 0.73)	0.66 (0.57, 0.76)	0.72 (0.64, 0.80)	0.73 (0.64, 0.81)	0.75 (0.64, 0.86)

Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test: The model-exhibited poor fit (P<0.05) for all outcomes.

^*Performed for subset of patients who were on corticosteroids at baseline.

Final single prediction model based on inverse variance weighting and includes: no prior bowel surgery, no prior TNFα-antagonist exposure, no history of fistulizing disease, baseline albumin, and baseline CRP score. Nagelkerke R-squared is a measure between 0 and 1, with 0 denoting that model does not explain any variation and 1 denoting that it perfectly explains the observed variation. The Brier score is a measure between 0 and 1 of prediction with the mean squared difference between the predicted probability and the actual outcome. The Brier score for a model can range from 0 for a perfect model to 0.25 for a non-informative model. ROC-AUC curve values are between 0.5 and 1, with 0.5 denoting that the model does not discriminate and 1 denoting that it perfectly discriminates. In the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, observed event rates are tested against expected event rates by decile of fitted values for prediction; P-values <0.05 indicate evidence of poor fit.

AUC, area under the curve; CD, Crohn’s disease; CRP, C-reactive protein; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; CI: confidence interval.