Extended Data Figure 5. Modelling of the highest possible turnover during the disease period that could occur undetected with carbon dating.

Different annual turnover rates during the disease period were modelled in order to find the highest possible turnover rate that could occur undetected. It was assumed that there was a healthy turnover before disease onset. If a comparison between the measured ¹⁴C and the modelled values is significant, we would be able to detect that turnover rate. The lowest turnover rate with significant difference tested was 0.1% annual turnover (P=0.041, two-tailed Mann-Whitney test, n=6). At 0.05% annual turnover, there was no longer a significant difference (P=0.132, two-tailed Mann-Whitney test, n=6). Data are mean (long line), ± s.d (short lines).