Table 2.
Predictor | Model 1a | Model 2b | Model 3c | Model 4d | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OR (95% CI) |
p value | C statistic | OR (95% CI) | p value | C statistic | OR (95% CI) | p value |
C
statistic |
OR (95% CI) | p value | C statistic | |
IOTF overweight/obese | ||||||||||||
Fasting glucose | 1.27 (1.19, 1.36) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.26 (1.18, 1.35) | <0.001*** | 0.67 | 1.22 (1.13, 1.31) | <0.001*** | 0.70 | 1.05 (0.98, 1.14) | 0.19 | 0.74 |
1 h glucose | 1.22 (1.14, 1.30) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.21 (1.13, 1.29) | <0.001*** | 0.67 | 1.18 (1.10, 1.27) | <0.001*** | 0.69 | 1.11 (1.03, 1.19) | 0.006** | 0.74 |
2 h glucose | 1.17 (1.10, 1.25) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.18 (1.10, 1.26) | <0.001*** | 0.67 | 1.15 (1.07, 1.23) | <0.001*** | 0.69 | 1.09 (1.01, 1.17) | 0.019* | 0.74 |
HbA1c | 1.23 (1.15, 1.33) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.25 (1.16, 1.35) | <0.001*** | 0.67 | 1.24 (1.15, 1.34) | <0.001*** | 0.69 | 1.12 (1.04, 1.22) | 0.004** | 0.74 |
IOTF obesity | ||||||||||||
Fasting glucose | 1.40 (1.28, 1.54) | <0.001*** | 0.69 | 1.40 (1.27, 1.53) | <0.001*** | 0.71 | 1.34 (1.21, 1.48) | <0.001*** | 0.74 | 1.16 (1.05, 1.29) | 0.005** | 0.77 |
1 h glucose | 1.24 (1.13, 1.36) | <0.001*** | 0.68 | 1.23 (1.12, 1.35) | <0.001** | 0.70 | 1.20 (1.08, 1.32) | <0.001*** | 0.73 | 1.13 (1.01, 1.25) | 0.025* | 0.77 |
2 h glucose | 1.28 (1.17, 1.40) | <0.001*** | 0.68 | 1.29 (1.18, 1.41) | <0.001*** | 0.71 | 1.25 (1.14, 1.38) | <0.001*** | 0.71 | 1.21 (1.09, 1.34) | <0.001*** | 0.78 |
HbA1c | 1.37 (1.23, 1.52) | <0.001*** | 0.69 | 1.37 (1.23, 1.52) | <0.001*** | 0.71 | 1.36 (1.22, 1.52) | <0.001*** | 0.74 | 1.21 (1.08, 1.35) | <0.001*** | 0.77 |
BOD POD % fat >85th percentilee | ||||||||||||
Fasting glucose | 1.35 (1.25, 1.47) | <0.001*** | 0.54 | 1.34 (1.24, 1.46) | <0.001*** | 0.62 | 1.29 (1.18, 1.41) | <0.001*** | 0.65 | 1.15 (1.05, 1.26) | 0.002** | 0.68 |
1 h glucose | 1.27 (1.17, 1.38) | <0.001*** | 0.55 | 1.25 (1.15, 1.36) | <0.001*** | 0.62 | 1.23 (1.13, 1.34) | <0.001*** | 0.65 | 1.18 (1.08, 1.29) | <0.001*** | 0.69 |
2 h glucose | 1.20 (1.10, 1.29) | <0.001*** | 0.54 | 1.20 (1.11, 1.30) | <0.001*** | 0.61 | 1.19 (1.09, 1.29) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.15 (1.06, 1.26) | 0.001** | 0.69 |
HbA1c | 1.25 (1.14, 1.36) | <0.001*** | 0.52 | 1.25 (1.14, 1.37) | <0.001*** | 0.61 | 1.23 (1.12, 1.35) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.14 (1.03, 1.25) | 0.009** | 0.68 |
Waist circumference > 85th percentilee | ||||||||||||
Fasting glucose | 1.34 (1.23, 1.45) | <0.001*** | 0.54 | 1.31 (1.21, 1.42) | <0.001*** | 0.61 | 1.25 (1.14, 1.36) | <0.001*** | 0.65 | 1.09 (0.99, 1.19) | 0.067 | 0.69 |
1 h glucose | 1.22 (1.13, 1.32) | <0.001*** | 0.55 | 1.22 (1.12, 1.32) | <0.001*** | 0.60 | 1.21 (1.11, 1.32) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.15 (1.05, 1.26) | 0.002** | 0.69 |
2 h glucose | 1.20 (1.10, 1.29) | <0.001*** | 0.53 | 1.21 (1.12, 1.31) | <0.001*** | 0.60 | 1.20 (1.11, 1.31) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.17 (1.07, 1.27) | 0.003** | 0.69 |
HbA1c | 1.23 (1.13, 1.34) | <0.001*** | 0.52 | 1.27 (1.16, 1.38) | <0.001*** | 0.60 | 1.26 (1.15, 1.38) | <0.001*** | 0.65 | 1.15 (1.05, 1.27) | 0.004** | 0.69 |
Sum of skinfolds > 85th percentilee | ||||||||||||
Fasting glucose | 1.36 (1.25, 1.47) | <0.001*** | 0.54 | 1.34 (1.23, 1.45) | <0.001*** | 0.61 | 1.30 (1.19, 1.41) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.16 (1.06, 1.27) | 0.001** | 0.67 |
1 h glucose | 1.25 (1.16, 1.36) | <0.001*** | 0.55 | 1.26 (1.16, 1.37) | <0.001*** | 0.60 | 1.24 (1.14, 1.35) | <0.001*** | 0.64 | 1.19 (1.09, 1.30) | <0.001*** | 0.68 |
2 h glucose | 1.23 (1.14, 1.33) | <0.001*** | 0.54 | 1.25 (1.15, 1.36) | <0.001*** | 0.60 | 1.24 (1.14, 1.35) | <0.001*** | 0.63 | 1.21 (1.11, 1.31) | <0.001*** | 0.68 |
HbA1c | 1.25 (1.15, 1.37) | <0.001*** | 0.52 | 1.26 (1.15, 1.38) | <0.001*** | 0.59 | 1.24 (1.13, 1.36) | <0.001*** | 0.63 | 1.15 (1.05, 1.26) | 0.004** | 0.67 |
ORs for the dichotomous outcomes are for the continuous predictors higher by one SD estimated in the original HAPO data: fasting glucose 0.4 mmol/l; 1 h glucose 1.7 mmol/l; 2 h glucose 1.3 mmol/l; HbA1c 5.0 mmol/mol (0.45%).
P values are from logistic regression model
p<0.05
p<0.01
p<0.001
Model 1: adjusted for field centre for being overweight/obese and obesity outcomes; unadjusted for BOD POD % fat, waist circumference and sum of skinfolds >85th percentile outcomes
Model 2: Model 1 + child pubertal status (Tanner stage 1, 2/3, 4/5, sex × Tanner stage interaction)
Model 3: Model 2 + maternal variables during pregnancy OGTT (age, height, any family history of diabetes, mean arterial pressure, parity [0, 1+], smoking [yes/no], alcohol [yes/no], gestational age)
Model 4: Model 3 + maternal BMI during pregnancy
85th percentiles were determined using quantile regression adjusted for age, sex and field centre