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. 2019 Mar 18;10:1246. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09193-y

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — Estimated probabilities of disease given infection and effects of risk factors. Points and vertical bars indicate posterior medians and 95% credible intervals. a Serotype-specific probability of disease given infection. b Association of the risk of disease given infection with serostatus at entry, age group, and years since most recent infection. The reference group is children aged 2–8 years, without prior infection. Source data are provided as a Source Data file