Table A.7:

Overall detection performance for select methods. AUC gives area under the ROC curve, TPR and Outbreak Size give the true positive rate and mean size of outbreak at time of detection for a fixed false positive rate of 0.05, respectively.

Method	AUC	TPR	Outbreak Size
DITOc	0.94 ± 0.028	0.83 ± 0.064	2.8 ± 0.12
DITO10	0.83 ± 0.048	0.43 ± 0.11	4.6 ± 0.69
DITO0	0.79 ± 0.052	0.35 ± 0.088	5.2 ± 1.0
${\text{DITO}}_w^{10}$	0.74 ± 0.054	0.48 ± 0.050	4.2 ± 0.60
${\text{DITO}}_w^0$	0.56 ± 0.067	0.17 ± 0.063	6.8 ± 3.4
${\text{DITO}}_H^c$	0.68 ± 0.060	0.33 ± 0.052	4.0 ± 1.7
ExpR	0.50 ± 0.048	0.051 ± 0.013	9.1 ± 20.
SIM	0.87 ± 0.029	0.77 ± 0.040	3.0 ± 0.12
SIMH	0.65 ± 0.032	0.34 ± 0.054	3.8 ± 1.2
Coda0	0.75 ± 0.056	0.34 ± 0.079	5.5 ± 1.0
Coda∞	0.57 ± 0.067	0.14 ± 0.063	7.0 ± 6.9
Coda#	0.53 ± 0.068	0.086 ± 0.039	8.1 ± 13.