Table 3:

AUC for select methods by true outbreak size.

	Outbreak size
Method	2–3	4–6	7–9	≥ 10
DDITOc	0.85 ± 0.070	0.97 ± 0.029	0.95 ± 0.048	0.95 ± 0.051
${\text{DITO}}_w^{10}$	0.62 ± 0.10	0.74 ± 0.095	0.86 ± 0.099	0.91 ± 0.077
${\text{DITO}}_w^0$	0.53 ± 0.11	0.52 ± 0.12	0.53 ± 0.16	0.73 ± 0.14
ExpR	0.51 ± 0.077	0.49 ± 0.089	0.52 ± 0.13	0.48 ± 0.14
SIM	0.71 ± 0.059	0.96 ± 0.035	0.95 ± 0.048	0.95 ± 0.051
Coda0	0.54 ± 0.11	0.80 ± 0.089	0.89 ± 0.090	0.94 ± 0.057