Table 4.

Final multivariable predictors of high parent illness severity score and high clinician illness severity score (all P<0.01)

		Illness of severity score
		High parent score (≥7) (AUROC 0.68, 95% CI = 0.66 to 0.69)		High clinician score (≥4) (AUROC 0.67, 95% CI = 0.66 to 0.68)		High clinician score (≥4) (AUROC 0.79, 95% CI = 0.79 to 0.80)
		Model 1 (Demographics and symptoms)		Model 1 (Demographics and symptoms)		Model 2 (Demographics, symptoms, and clinical signs)
	Source	Odds ratio	95% CI	Odds ratio	95% CI	Odds ratio	95% CI
Sociodemographic
≥2 children at home	Parent	1.28	1.15 to 1.44		a		a
Clinical history
Illness deteriorated recently before consultation	Parent		a	2.11	1.89 to 2.34	1.90	1.69 to 2.13
Symptoms
Change in cry	Parent	1.30	1.13 to 1.49	1.29	1.14 to 1.46	1.39	1.21 to 1.59
Rapid breathing/raised respiratory rateb	Parent/clinician	1.88	1.69 to 2.10	1.78	1.61 to 1.98	1.43	1.28 to 1.59
Severe fever/temperature ≥37.8°C	Parent/clinician	2.58	2.12 to 3.13	3.04	2.52 to 3.67	3.58	3.12 to 4.10
Severe dry cough	Parent	1.93	1.60 to 2.34		a		a
Severe disturbed sleep	Parent	1.32	1.14 to 1.52		a		a
Severe reduced eating	Parent	1.58	1.26 to 1.98		a		a
Moderate-to-severe reduced fluid intake	Parent	1.55	1.34 to 1.80		a		a
Clinical examination
Pallor	Clinician	–	–	–	–	0.58	0.49 to 0.70
Irritable or drowsy	Clinician	–	–	–	–	1.91	1.22 to 2.99
Nasal flaring	Clinician	–	–	–	–	3.08	1.76 to 5.41
Inter/subcostal recession	Clinician	–	–	–	–	4.91	3.54 to 6.82
Wheeze	Clinician	–	–	–	–	2.31	1.98 to 2.68
Crackles/crepitations	Clinician	–	–	–	–	4.79	4.18 to 5.50

^aP≥0.01 and therefore not included in the model.

^bAge-related cut-offs. AUROC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. CI = confidence interval.