Exhibit 3.

Summary Results for Potential Innovations: Neurologic Diseases

Innovation	Likelihood of occurrence at 20 years*	Brief Summary of Impact
Improved identification of persons at risk for Alzheimer’s disease	30%	No direct impact on mortality or morbidity, but it will identify people at higher risk for guided treatment.
Primary prevention of Alzheimer’s disease Using therapies based on the amyloid hypothesis	40%	Delay of onset by a median 5 years (range 3–10 years), slow progression by a mild to moderate amount.
Primary prevention of Alzheimer’s disease using existing or other new drugs	40%	Delay of onset by 2–5 years, minor impact on progression.
Treatment of established Alzheimer’s disease by vaccine, secretase inhibitor, antioxidants, anti-inflammatories, or selective estrogen receptor modulators	30%	Decrease in rate of progression that is mild to moderate.
Treatment of established Alzheimer’s disease by cognition enhancers	40%	Shift back in time by 6 months to 2 years but does not modify the disease.
Prevention and treatment of Parkinson’s disease by profiling genetic predisposition for susceptibility to environmental toxins	10%	Eliminate disease in 15% of existing cases, delay onset in 15–20% of cases.
Treatment of Parkinson’s disease therapies by neurotransplantation	25%	Shift back in time by 2 to 5 years but does not modify disease.
Treatment of acute stroke by drugs that minimize cell death	60%	Decrease in disability due to stroke of median 30% (range 25–50%).
Treatment of acute stroke by stem cell transplant	20%	Decrease in disability due to stroke of 25%.
Improved treatment of depression using new or existing drugs	70%	70% improvement in symptoms (e.g. 35% improvement over placebo).

SOURCE: Adapted from D.P. Goldman et al., Health Status and Medical Treatment of the Future Elderly: Final Report, Pub. no. TR-169-CMS (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 2004), Table 3.3.