. 2019 Mar 7;9(3):e025122. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-025122

Table 4.

Contingency table demonstrating implications of potential RCT outcomes

	Potential HIV incidence outcome	Other potential results	Impact on programmes policy in high HIV prevalence regions	Programmatically relevant data from study
Hypothesis proved	Targeted better.	Fewer women on PrEP, cost-effective and safe.	Implement targeted PrEP.	Data to model and compare impact on HIV transmission, cost and scale up. HIV incidence/CI, cost-effectiveness, safety, feasibility and process.
Hypothesis opposed	Universal better.	Fewer women on PrEP, cost-effective and safe.	Implement universal PrEP.
Mixed benefits	Universal better.	Universal too many women on PrEP not cost effective.	Refine universal strategy to decrease cost and unnecessary PrEP exposure.
Mixed findings	Incidence low in both, no difference.	Targeted more cost-effective results in few on PrEP.	Implement targeted PrEP.	HIV incidence estimate/CI, cost-effectiveness, safety and process.
Mixed findings	Incidence low in both, no difference.	Universal more cost-effective and fewer women on PrEP.	Implement universal PrEP.

PrEP, pre-exposure prophylaxis.