Table 1. Projected mortality for selected 21 causes in 2030 in comparison to mortality in 2015.
| Diseases | Male | Female | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2030 | % change in ASDR | 2015 | 2030 | % change in ASDR | ||||||
| Deaths | ASDR | Deaths | ASDR | Deaths | ASDR | Deaths | ASDR | ||||
| CMNNs | |||||||||||
| HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis | 2,181 | 4.5 | 4,669 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 1,395 | 2.7 | 2,628 | 2.7 | 0.4 | |
| Other infectious dsa | 3,031 | 5.8 | 6,705 | 5.2 | −9.6 | 3,436 | 6.4 | 8,046 | 7.1 | 9.8 | |
| Neglected tropical ds and malaria | 131 | 0.3 | 266 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 129 | 0.3 | 227 | 0.3 | −5.1 | |
| Maternal disorder | N/A | 64 | 0.3 | 65 | 0.4 | 11.6 | |||||
| Neonatal disorder | 418 | 2.6 | 563 | 3.8 | 49.5 | 330 | 1.9 | 378 | 2.5 | 27.2 | |
| Nutritional deficiencies | 312 | 0.6 | 664 | 0.6 | −3.6 | 374 | 0.7 | 857 | 0.7 | 5.4 | |
| Other CMNN | 309 | 0.7 | 568 | 0.7 | −6.1 | 289 | 0.7 | 491 | 0.7 | −3.5 | |
| NCDs | |||||||||||
| Neoplasms | 51,049 | 102.9 | 75,758 | 71.0 | −31.0 | 32,848 | 75.6 | 44,660 | 53.7 | −28.9 | |
| Cardiovascular and circulatory ds | 32,964 | 63.6 | 34,795 | 26.2 | −58.9 | 37,848 | 72.2 | 48,553 | 40.5 | −43.9 | |
| Chronic respiratory ds | 9,114 | 15.2 | 23,313 | 16.1 | 6.0 | 6,855 | 12.5 | 14,777 | 12.9 | 3.5 | |
| Cirrhosis of the liver | 5,882 | 14.2 | 8,494 | 14.7 | 3.9 | 2,332 | 5.7 | 3,568 | 5.6 | −2.0 | |
| Digestive ds except cirrhosis | 2,672 | 5.3 | 5,864 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 3,177 | 6.0 | 6,390 | 6.2 | 3.0 | |
| Neurological disorders | 7,292 | 13.4 | 16,676 | 12.8 | −4.3 | 11,000 | 20.4 | 24,441 | 21.6 | 6.1 | |
| Mental and behavioral disorders | 924 | 2.3 | 1,228 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 197 | 0.5 | 247 | 0.5 | −5.2 | |
| DM, urogenital, blood, and endocrine ds | 9,278 | 18.0 | 14,344 | 10.2 | −43.4 | 10,357 | 20.5 | 18,353 | 16.0 | −21.8 | |
| Musculoskeletal disorders | 510 | 1.0 | 1,032 | 0.9 | −5.9 | 970 | 2.0 | 1,864 | 2.0 | 1.0 | |
| Other NCDs | 691 | 2.9 | 1,067 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 805 | 3.0 | 1,222 | 3.0 | 1.8 | |
| Injuries | |||||||||||
| Transport injuries | 4,566 | 13.3 | 3,710 | 6.8 | −48.9 | 2,154 | 6.0 | 1,809 | 3.2 | −47.7 | |
| Unintentional injuriesb | 7,497 | 18.6 | 12,212 | 19.2 | 3.1 | 5,576 | 13.0 | 9,663 | 12.4 | −4.5 | |
| Self-harm and interpersonal violence | 11,393 | 33.8 | 14,760 | 33.1 | −1.9 | 5,136 | 16.9 | 6,250 | 17.3 | 1.9 | |
| Other injuriesc | 180 | 0.4 | 348 | 0.6 | 54.8 | 111 | 0.2 | 174 | 0.2 | −3.3 | |
ASDR = age-standardized death rate, ds = diseases, N/A = not applicable, CMNN = communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional condition, HIV/AIDS = human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome, NCD = non-communicable disease, DM = diabetes mellitus.
aDiarrhea, lower respiratory infections, meningitis, and other common infectious diseases; bUnintentional injuries other than transport injuries; cForces of natures, war, and legal intervention.