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. 2019 Mar 27;9:5238. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-41559-6

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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The ten US HHS regions: cross-regional correlation and estimation error breakdown. The US HHS regions include: Region 1 (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT), Region 2 (NJ, NY), Region 3 (DE, MD, PA, VA, WV), Region 4 (AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN), Region 5 (IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, WI), Region 6 (AR, LA, NM, OK, TX), Region 7 (IA, KS, MO, NE), Region 8 (CO, MT, ND, SD, UT, WY), Region 9 (AZ, CA, HI, NV), and Region 10 (AK, ID, OR, WA). The width of the link between two regions corresponds to the strength of the correlation between two regions’ historic %ILI (wider represents higher correlation). The bars compare the region-by-region estimation error of ARGO2, VAR, GFT, GFT+VAR, and the naive method in terms of the relative MSE to the naive method for the period of March 29, 2009 to August 15, 2015. All methods and metrics in comparison are defined in Methods section.