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. 2019 Mar 14;5(1):e12034. doi: 10.2196/12034

Table 1.

Prior values and quantiles of the posterior distribution for population size obtained from imputed visibility SS-PSE (successive sampling-population size estimation) estimates from 15 datasets of female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) populations in Armenia.

Population Expert values, n Posterior, n

Lowa Median (prior)b Higha 5% 25% Median 75% 95% Assessmentc
FSW, Yerevan 2012 1500 3143 9900 1243 2235 3734 6975 16,599 Great
FSW, Yerevan 2014 1500 3143 9900 397 421 445 469 542 Bad
FSW, Yerevan 2016 1500 3143 9900 784 1340 2090 4169 12,924 Okay
FSW, Gyumri 2016 165 351 1089 126 152 171 217 340 Okay
FSW, Vanadzor 2016 115 239 759 133 164 205 280 551 Great
MSM, Yerevan 2012 2420 4202 6667 943 1550 2407 4335 14,296 Bad
MSM, Yerevan 2014 2420 4202 6667 836 1407 2299 4477 17,973 Bad
MSM, Yerevan 2016 2420 4202 6667 871 1121 1550 2264 4870 Bad
MSM, Gyumri 2016 176 306 485 127 176 249 409 974 Okay
MSM, Vanadzor 2016 123 214 339 323 506 666 836 993 Bad
PWID, Yerevan 2012 1667 5842 14,473 1196 2041 3236 5823 17,117 Good
PWID, Yerevan 2014 1667 5842 14,473 1196 2091 3435 3569 19,008 Good
PWID, Yerevan 2016 1667 5842 14,473 698 947 1245 2091 6072 Bad
PWID, Gyumri 2016 167 584 1446 197 354 596 1141 2960 Great
PWID, Vanadzor 2016 117 409 1013 201 318 477 812 1775 Great

aThe prior low and high values are, respectively, the minimum of the expert prior lows and the maximum of the expert prior highs.

bThe prior median is the average of the expert prior medians.

cThe Assessment column describes how well the estimate aligned with expert knowledge, based on low and high values provided by experts that were not used in the size estimation model.