Table 1.
Prior values and quantiles of the posterior distribution for population size obtained from imputed visibility SS-PSE (successive sampling-population size estimation) estimates from 15 datasets of female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) populations in Armenia.
| Population | Expert values, n | Posterior, n |
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Lowa | Median (prior)b | Higha | 5% | 25% | Median | 75% | 95% | Assessmentc |
| FSW, Yerevan 2012 | 1500 | 3143 | 9900 | 1243 | 2235 | 3734 | 6975 | 16,599 | Great |
| FSW, Yerevan 2014 | 1500 | 3143 | 9900 | 397 | 421 | 445 | 469 | 542 | Bad |
| FSW, Yerevan 2016 | 1500 | 3143 | 9900 | 784 | 1340 | 2090 | 4169 | 12,924 | Okay |
| FSW, Gyumri 2016 | 165 | 351 | 1089 | 126 | 152 | 171 | 217 | 340 | Okay |
| FSW, Vanadzor 2016 | 115 | 239 | 759 | 133 | 164 | 205 | 280 | 551 | Great |
| MSM, Yerevan 2012 | 2420 | 4202 | 6667 | 943 | 1550 | 2407 | 4335 | 14,296 | Bad |
| MSM, Yerevan 2014 | 2420 | 4202 | 6667 | 836 | 1407 | 2299 | 4477 | 17,973 | Bad |
| MSM, Yerevan 2016 | 2420 | 4202 | 6667 | 871 | 1121 | 1550 | 2264 | 4870 | Bad |
| MSM, Gyumri 2016 | 176 | 306 | 485 | 127 | 176 | 249 | 409 | 974 | Okay |
| MSM, Vanadzor 2016 | 123 | 214 | 339 | 323 | 506 | 666 | 836 | 993 | Bad |
| PWID, Yerevan 2012 | 1667 | 5842 | 14,473 | 1196 | 2041 | 3236 | 5823 | 17,117 | Good |
| PWID, Yerevan 2014 | 1667 | 5842 | 14,473 | 1196 | 2091 | 3435 | 3569 | 19,008 | Good |
| PWID, Yerevan 2016 | 1667 | 5842 | 14,473 | 698 | 947 | 1245 | 2091 | 6072 | Bad |
| PWID, Gyumri 2016 | 167 | 584 | 1446 | 197 | 354 | 596 | 1141 | 2960 | Great |
| PWID, Vanadzor 2016 | 117 | 409 | 1013 | 201 | 318 | 477 | 812 | 1775 | Great |
aThe prior low and high values are, respectively, the minimum of the expert prior lows and the maximum of the expert prior highs.
bThe prior median is the average of the expert prior medians.
cThe Assessment column describes how well the estimate aligned with expert knowledge, based on low and high values provided by experts that were not used in the size estimation model.